sajedeh baghban khiabani; Mohammad Ajza Shokouhi
Abstract
Emphasizing the importance of sustainable urban development, the present study analyzes the futuristic approach and various factors of sustainability in the form of a system in districts one and two of Mashhad. The research follows a descriptive-analytical method using documents, questionnaires, interviews ...
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Emphasizing the importance of sustainable urban development, the present study analyzes the futuristic approach and various factors of sustainability in the form of a system in districts one and two of Mashhad. The research follows a descriptive-analytical method using documents, questionnaires, interviews and software analysis. Based on previous studies, 30 initial variables of sustainability were selected and then based on the opinions of 30 experts, six key variables in economic, socio-cultural, physical and environmental dimensions for district 1 and six key variables in economic and physical dimensions for district 2 in the impact matrix MICMAC software crossover was identified. Then, after defining the favorable, mediocre and catastrophic situations for each of the key variables, the experts were asked to consider the effects of situations on each other in the range of 3- to 3 with regards to conditions of the studied districts in order to use the SCENARIO WIZARD software for analyzing the present patterns of the studied areas. The results of this analysis predict a favorable scenario and a catastrophic scenario for district 1 and five favorable scenarios, a middle scenario and a catastrophic scenario for district 2. If the first scenario, which is the most favorable future for the progress of each district, is not realized, the middle scenario, which is in fact the current situation, and the catastrophic scenario, which is the destruction and reduction of sustainable factors, will be pursued. Although institutional sustainability does not play a key role in the sustainability of districts, but it strongly affects other variables of sustainability. According to the results of matrix analysis of cross-effects, physical, socio-cultural, economic and environmental dimensions play a key role in the sustainability of district one, and physical and economic dimensions play a key role in the stability of district two.
mozhgan arasteh; amir baghban; sajedeh baghban
Abstract
Nowadays, disaster management theories seek to create resilient societies against natural hazards. Attention to the futuristic approach and its role and position in promoting resilience is very important. The present study has used the futuristic approach to identify the status of the resilience system ...
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Nowadays, disaster management theories seek to create resilient societies against natural hazards. Attention to the futuristic approach and its role and position in promoting resilience is very important. The present study has used the futuristic approach to identify the status of the resilience system of Mashhad metropolis. For this purpose, descriptive-analytical studies, documentation and questionnaires and software analysis were used. Based on the studies, 31 primary variables affecting resilience in social, economic, structural-physical and environmental dimensions were selected. Finally, based on the opinions of 30 experts, six key variables of marginalization, migration, population density and urbanization percentage from the social index group and the variables of income level and housing price from the economic index group were identified in the matrix of cross-effects of Mic Mac software. Then, after defining the favorable, median and catastrophic situations for each of the key variables and evaluating each of these situations on each other by experts, the scenario patterns of Mashhad metropolis were analyzed using the Scenario Wizard software. The results have led to the presentation and proposal of a favorable scenario and a catastrophic scenario for the future of the metropolis of Mashhad. In case of creating and providing social, economic, structural-physical and environmental infrastructures and strategic and futuristic planning in the field of financing at different levels of urban planning, a favorable scenario for the future of Mashhad metropolis will be followed. Otherwise, in the long run, with the destruction and lack of necessary infrastructure, the realization of the disaster scenario and the destruction of the elements of resilience in the metropolis of Mashhad will accelerate.
